Waiting for the US Non-Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD kept testing the support at 1.0820 until it finally managed to break below that level. Personally, I think it is headed for the previous low at 1.0460. That said, the US Non-Farm Payrolls, also known as The Most Exciting Day of The Month for most traders out there, are on Friday. I don’t think that the EUR/USD bearish trend is over, but considering the aforementioned event and that the pair hasn’t broken below the previous low, I don’t intend to open new short positions for the moment.

USD/JPY Is Moving To The Upside Again

USD/JPY has been consolidating for a long time, forming a multi-week range. In the past few days I kept expecting it to fall until it reached the support at 117.80 but the pair formed an impressive hammer candlestick and then a doji one in the daily filter chart and, of course, started climbing. I was not disappointed because these candlesticks were a clear indication of the impending move to the upside and I managed to open long positions on time. It looks like the range continues. I expect it would reach target 121.70 should it manage to break above the resistance at 120.40.

GBP/USD Is Still Consolidating

GBP/USD spent the entire week consolidating and it looks like we will have to wait at least until next Monday for that to end. The pair has been testing the resistance at 1.4950, which coincides with the (89) MA on the four hour filter chart, for the past few days and I think it might break above it next week. Should it do so it will probably reach target 1.5280 sooner or later. That said, I think the move to the upside is temporary and the pair will continue its descent once the correction is over.

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Inflation Fell To 0% In January In the UK

Inflation in UK fell to 0% in January, the lowest it has ever been ever since they began keeping records.

Apparently lower food and computer goods prices helped cut the rate to 0.3% in January.

February's figure is the lowest rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation since estimates of the measure began in 1988.
The drop in the CPI measure was sharper than many analysts had expected, with most expecting a rate of 0.1%.
The February figure means that the cost of living is the same as it was a year earlier.
It is worth pointing out that CPI only became the main measure of inflation in 2010. Before that the Retail Price Index, which includes housing costs and mortgage payments, was used. That index was negative for much of 2009.
Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the UK "took another step towards deflation" in February.
"It looks likely the rate will drop below zero at some point in the coming months, and hover around zero for most of the year," he said.
For now at least, the fall in the price of food, games, petrol and energy, if it persists for a few months, is good news for most of us - because it increases our spending power and our pounds go further.
In other words we feel and are a bit richer.
But if stagnation in prices were to go on for longer, if it were to turn into fully fledged deflation, that would be worrying.
The point is that if we thought that the price of things we don't normally have to buy at any particular moment - household goods like washing machines for example, or motor cars - was on a firmly downward path, we would probably defer purchases of those things, and that would depress economic activity.

GBP/USD Will Likely Continue On Its Way Down

GBP/USD has been consolidating for the past several days after it reached the support at 1.4680. The pair climbled and reached the resistance level at 1.4970, which coincides with the MA89 on the four hour filter chart and it has been testing that resistance for a while now. Personally, I do not think it will be able to break above it, as the pair has formed a hammer candlestick pattern on the daily chart right under the resistance level. I expect that the bearish trend will continue and the pair will head for target 1.4680 again.

Correction Continues for EUR/USD

Just as I suspected last week, the EUR/USD correction is not over yet, because the pair is climbing and it doesn’t look like it will stop before it reaches 1.1140. That used to be a support level for EUR/USD and it is very likely it will now become a level of resistance instead. I am hardly surprised, the only thing I was not really expecting was for the pair to start climbing on Monday. In my experience Mondays tend to be terribly uneventful when it comes to this pair, but I am not complaining – the more it climbs, the more I profit from my long positions.

The EUR/USD Consolidation Is Not Over Yet

Just as I suspected, the EUR/USD consolidation is not over yet. After the move to the downside yesterday the pair started climbing once again and is headed for the resistance level at 1.0920. Should it manage to break above that level the pair will likely reach at least 1.1000, I think. I believe that we are in for a longer consolidation this time. With this in mind I opened long positions and I intend to keep them open at least until the pair reaches 1.0920. Once it reaches that level I will consider closing them or keeping them open depending on the candlestick patterns the chart forms there.

Is The Consolidation Over?

Just as I thought, the FOMC rate decision announcement did cause EUR/USD to move to the upside until it reached the resistance at 1.0950 and then it bounced back. Congratulations to everyone who managed to use the two movements – to the upside and then to the downside - to make profit . I confess that I only managed to do so with the latter The question is, what next? I think the bearish trend will continue, but that the consolidation is not necessarily over yet, so I don’t intend to open new short positions before I see the pair break below the support at 1.0480.

Waiting For The FOMC Rate Decision

EUR/USD has been in consolidation since Monday after the pair formed a doji candlestick on the four-hour filter chart. Currently it is testing the resistance at 1.0660, but I highly doubt it will be able to break above that resistance before the announcement of the FOMC’s rate decision later today. Personally, I think that even if the announcement causes a move to the upside it will be only temporarily and the pair will eventually continue down on its way to parity, as the bearish trend is not over yet.

UK To Add Interesting New Items To Their Inflation Basket

The Office for National Statistics in UK updates their inflation basket every year, depending on how much people are spending on different products. It looks like smoking ordinary cigarettes is becoming less and less popular because among the products added to the updated inflation basket are e-cigarettes. They will also add specialist “craft” beers.

The cost of music streaming services has been added as well, but sat-navs have been dropped.
The basket of goods currently contains 703 items and services, of which 13 are new this year after eight were removed.
The inflation rate currently stands at a record low of 0.3%, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index.
The ONS said that e-cigarettes had been added because many smokers were using them.
Sales of "craft" beers have been brought in because more money is being spent on them, along with a rise in the shelf space devoted to those beers in shops and supermarkets.
Although only around 700 items have their prices tracked each month, many are measured in several places. So 110,000 prices are collected from 20,000 shops in the UK, with another 70,000 prices measured online.
Revisions to this year's basket continue to reflect the fast-moving change in the use of technology.
For 2015, the cost of music streaming services has been included, along with subscriptions to online console computer games.
Headphones have been added too, as well as mobile phone accessories such as covers and chargers.
However, sat navs are no longer included. "Partly because many drivers now navigate using smart phones, but also because some new cars now come with sat-navs built in," the ONS said.
Recent years have seen additions to the basket of the cost of video streaming services, e-books, tablet computers and smartphones.
Out have gone DVD recorders, Freeview set-top boxes, the cost of developingcolour films and mobile phone downloads.

I have been watching the EUR/USD and USD/JPY charts for hours now, but the situation remains the same – both pairs are in consolidation that is unlikely to end any time soon. EUR/USD is slowly headed for 1.08, perhaps even 1.10, while USD/JPY has been testing the resistance around 121.80 for days now. I think USD/JPY might be forming a double top, but that depends on whether or not it will be able to break above that resistance. I certainly will not be opening any new long positions before that happens.

EUR/USD reached 1.05 and even broke below that level but it also finally moved to the upside after forming a doji candlestick in the four hour filter chart. That said, I am sure that move to the upside is only the beginning of another consolidation before the pair continues on its way down to parity. Currently there is no indication that the bearish trend is at an end so such a consolidation is only an excellent opportunity to open new short positions. Personally, I expect that the consolidation might reach target 1.0800 -1.0820.

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Another day, another drop for the EUR/USD – the pair did not even slow down when it broke below the 1.06 level. At this point I feel like I know what I’m going to see without even looking at the chart. The downward move is great for me – and for everyone else who have short positions open – but just how much lower can this pair go? I am starting to suspect that it won’t stop even when it reaches 1.0000. Still, I keep reminding myself to be as cautious as possible, because I know that sooner or later the pair will reach a support that will cause a serious move to the upside.