Monday 29 June 2015

GBP/USD Opened With A Gap And Recovered It




After the Greek drama during the weekend most pairs opened with a gap and GBP/USD was no exception. However, the pair managed to recover the gap and even continued climbing after that, reaching the resistance at 1.5790, which wasn’t all that surprising considering the doji candlestick above the support at 1.5650 visible on the daily filter chart. For the moment I would say that I expect a further move to the upside so the pair can test the resistance at 1.5790 again, but considering the situation in Greece and its effect on the market I would be very cautious while trading this week.

Friday 26 June 2015

GOLD Is About To Move To The Upside






I took a look at the GOLD charts earlier today and I noticed a very telling signal that it is about to move to the upside: a perfectly formed hammer candlestick visible the four hour filter chart right above the support at 1171.90. I expect it will start rising soon, but first it has to break above the resistance at 1175.35. Should it do so I expect a further move to the upside towards target 1178.70. Not to mention that if you take a look at the daily filter chart you will notice that it has formed a spinning top candlestick above the support and there is plenty of space to move up towards the resistance at 1182.00.

Thursday 25 June 2015

The Greek Crisis Deepens






One would think that the Greek crisis would hit rock bottom sooner or later, but it seems that there’s always room to deepen further. Then again, rock bottom would probably be Greece defaulting, which thankfully hasn’t happened yet.
In an effort to avoid that outcome Eurozone finance ministers are meeting in a desperate bid to find a solution to the Greece debt crisis amid deadlock between Athens and its creditors.
Greece faces default if it fails to make a €1.6bn (£1.1bn) IMF debt repayment by Tuesday.
But, as Europe's leaders arrived for a Brussels summit, Germany's Angela Merkel warned talks were going nowhere.
Top-level negotiations between Greece's prime minister and international lenders ended earlier without a deal.
"We still haven't made the necessary progress; in some places it looks like we're even going backwards," Chancellor Merkel told reporters.
If Greece does default, it could exit the Eurozone, with possible repercussions for the rest of Europe and the world economy.
Only once agreement is reached will the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) unlock the final €7.2bn tranche of bailout funds for cash-strapped Greece.
European Council President Donald Tusk was a little more upbeat, butappeared to base his optimism on instinct: "I have a good hunch thatunlike in Sophocles' tragedies this Greek story will have a happy end."

GBP/USD Failed To Break Below 1.5670




GBP/USD reached the support at 1.5670 visible on the daily filter chart but failed to break below that level and moved to the upside again. While there is still a small possibility that the pair might break below the support and continue falling towards 1.5590, I think we can expect a further move to the upside in the following days. I think GBP/USD will likely continue rising at least until it reaches 1.6000, which is a significant level of resistance visible on the daily filter chart, and should it break above that level we can expect a further move to the upside towards target 1.6100.

Tuesday 23 June 2015

GBP/USD: Correction Continues





As I expected, GBP/USD broke below both supports at 1.5810 and 1.5770 and continued falling. The pair is currently likely headed for target 1.5640, which coincides with the 89(MA) on the four hour filter chart, and should it break below that level of support it will probably continue its descent towards the support at 1.5540, visible on the daily filter chart. However, I still think that this is not the end of the bullish trend and that once the correction ends the pair will once again attempt to break above 1.5930.

Monday 22 June 2015

GBP/USD: A Short-term Correction?





GBP/USD kept rising until it finally reached the target at 1.5930, which is a pretty strong resistance level visible on the monthly filter chart. Naturally, after reaching a level of such significant resistance the pair bounced off of it, formed a pair of doji candlesticks in the daily filter chart and moved to the downside. Currently GBP/USD is testing the support at 1.5810. Should it be able to break below that level I expect a further move to the downside until it reaches the support at 1.5770 and it is possible it may fall even lower. Either way, I think that once the correction ends the bullish trend will continue and the pair will head for the resistance at 1.6100.

Thursday 18 June 2015

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Wednesday 17 June 2015

GBP/USD: Is This A Rising Wedge?




GBP/USD finally reached the strong resistance level around 1.5760 visible on the weekly filter chart. As you can see in the screenshot above, the pair formed a pattern that strongly resembles a rising wedge and although it did break above the trendline, in my opinion this is a false break. Considering the strong resistance at 1.5760 and the rising wedge pattern, I expect that the pair will soon move to the downside and that drop will be considerable, initially reaching target 1.5600, although I think it might drop even lower. That said, even if we can expect a drop, the bullish trend is likely not over yet.

Tuesday 16 June 2015

NZD/USD Is About To Move To The Upside





NZD/USD might be in a pretty long-term bearish trend but correction still happens occasionally and it looks like another one is about to begin. If you take a look at the screenshots of both the daily and the four-hour filter charts you will notice the telltale signals that a move to the upside is about to begin – doji and hammer candlesticks that have formed right above the support at 0.6960. The pair will likely start climbing soon and will probably reach the resistance at 0.7020, and should it break above that level it might reach 0.7100.


Friday 12 June 2015

GBP/USD: The Rally Continues




The GBP/USD consolidation finally ended earlier today when the pair broke above the resistance at 1.5550 and then continued climbing higher. For now the rally continues. I expect the pair to continue to rise, at least until it reaches the resistance at 1.5760, visible on the weekly filter chart. Since that is a very serious level of resistance I will likely close my long positions once the pair finally reaches its target. That said, should GBP/USD manage to break above 1.5760, it will likely continue climbing until it reaches 1.5880.

Thursday 11 June 2015

EUR/JPY Is Testing The Support At 138.60





EUR/JPY formed a doji candlestick on the daily filter chart right under the resistance at 141.00 and moved to the downside, but reached the support at 138.60 and is currently testing it. Whether or not it will manage to break below the support is uncertain, considering the candlesticks that have formed on the four hour filter chart, but if it does manage to break below that level the pair will continue falling until it reaches the support at 137.00. If it fails to do that we can expect the pair to start climbing again in another attempt to break above 141.00.

Wednesday 10 June 2015

GBP/USD Correction Continues




 The GBP/USD correction continues. The pair failed to break above the resistance at 1.5550 and moved to the downside again, dropping with almost 60 pips in about an hour. It was to be expected, considering the doji candlestick that had formed in the 30 minute filter chart. Whether or not the move to the downside will continue depends on whether the pair will manage to break below the support at 1.5480. Should it bounce off the support I expect it to start climbing again to test the resistance at 1.5550 once more and then the one at 1.5610, which is visible on the daily filter chart.

Monday 8 June 2015

EUR/USD Started Climbing Again






EUR/USD dropped considerably after the US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, but today the pairing started moving to the upside again. I admit I am not too surprised – events like this might have a significant effect on the market but it is usually only temporary.

As I said, EUR/USD is climbing again. The pair is headed for the resistance at 1.1440, visible on the weekly filter chart. Should it break above that resistance, and in my opinion it is quite possible that it will, the pair will reach target 1.1550 – 1.1560 so the correction will continue for the foreseeable future.

Friday 5 June 2015

USD/JPY: Next Target Is Likely 126.40



Most traders tend to wait for the first Friday of the month with great trepidation, because that is when the US Non-farm Payrolls are released, and as we all know, that is one of the scheduled events that causes a lot of volatility on the market, and that means you can make significant profit if you know what you are doing. I confess I don’t always use this opportunity, because sometimes it causes the price to move too quickly in both directions to react on time, but other times it’s a perfect opportunity to trade.

Take a look at the screenshot to see the effect the NFP had on the USD/JPY pair today:


 As you can see, the USD/JPY has been in consolidation for the past few days, but once the NFP came out, it quickly moved to the upside again and climbed for a little over a 100 pips. I managed to make good use of it, and I hope many of you did as well.

Clearly the bullish trend will continue for now, and next week we can likely expect a new move to the upside, at least until the pair reaches target 126.40.

Thursday 4 June 2015

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UK Interest Rates Have Been Kept at 0.5%




The UK interest rates have been kept at a record low again by the Bank of England. The Bank also kept the size of the bond-buying stimulus programme unchanged at £375bn.
The decision by the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) comes more than six years after the record low was introduced.
The half-dozen years of ultra-low interest rates have cut savings' returns, while mortgage borrowers have benefited from lower repayments.
Ultra-low inflation, which turned negative in April at -0.1%, has put on hold expectations about the Bank raising rates in 2015.
Last month, the Bank indicated in its quarterly inflation report that it was likely to raise the cost of borrowing in the middle of next year.
Meanwhile, recent ONS figures confirmed that UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 0.3% in the first quarter, which was its worst showing since the end of 2012.
The nine-strong MPC has voted unanimously to keep rates on hold in all its previous meetings so far this year.
Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "The Bank of England was always a nailed-on certainty to keep interest rates at 0.5%. Indeed, the odds currently strongly favour the Bank of England sitting tight on interest rates (and on the stock of quantitative easing) over the rest of 2015."
He added: "We expect the Bank of England to start edging interest ratesup in the first half of 2016.

Wednesday 3 June 2015

EUR/USD Is Likely Headed for 1.1440




Today ECB announced its rate decision and Mario Draghi did his press-conference. Unsurprisingly, these events had a significant if expected effect on the market. EUR/USD had formed a hammer candlestick right above the support at 1.0940 visible on the weekly filter chart, which was a good indication that a move to the upside is about to begin. The move to the upside had already started when the ECB decision came out, which only caused the pair to climb even higher. EUR/USD is likely headed for the previous high at 1.1440. Should it break above that resistance, the pair will probably reach target 1.1570, which is a significant level of resistance as well.

Monday 1 June 2015

GBP/USD: Take A Look At The Monthly Filter Chart




GBP/USD broke below the support at 1.5230 and continued descending slowly all day. Soon the pair will reach 1.5150, a very strong level of support visible on the weekly filter chart. I admit I spent some time wondering whether the pair will break below that level and continue descending, and then it occurred to me to take a look at the monthly filter chart, something I don’t do very often for obvious reasons. As you can see on the screenshot here:





GBP/USD has formed a doji candlestick pattern on the monthly filter chart, which is a pretty serious indication that the pair will probably continue descending. Considering that information, I concluded that GBP/USD is very likely to break below the support at 1.5150 and head for target 1.4630.