Slow Day For GBP/USD

Today is a holiday in the UK and consequently GBP/USD has been quite slow to move. However, it still managed to move to the downside again and will likely soon reach the support at 1.5350 or perhaps the previous low at 1.5330. Regardless of the level it reaches the pair will either form a double bottom and move to the upside again or it will break below the support and continue on its way down. Should it break below the support we can probably expect it to continue falling at least until it reaches the next support at 1.5130 which is visible on the weekly filter chart.

UK Economic Growth Is At 0.7% For The Second Quarter

According to official information the UK growth for the second quarter remains at 0.7%.

The initial figure released last month and was boosted by a sharp rise in oil and gas production.

As expected, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday made no change to the reading for the three months to June.
It was higher than the 0.4% growth recorded for the first quarter of the year.
Net trade boosted GDP by one percentage point in the second quarter - the biggest contribution from trade in four years - as exports jumped.
Economists have said the boost to trade might be temporary, because the persistent strength of sterling is making British goods more expensive abroad, while turmoil in Chinese financial markets has increased uncertainty about the global outlook.
Business investment rose 2.9% compared with the first three months of 2015 - the highest figure in a year.
Samuel Tombs, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said the figure "put paid to the idea that uncertainty about the general election would weigh on capital expenditure".
Household spending increased by 0.7%, but was lower than the 0.9% rise in the first quarter.
Weak inflation, low interest rates and a strong pound have helped to keep consumer sentiment buoyant.
The UK economy expanded by 3% last year in its best result since 2006. TheBank of England expects the same momentum to be maintained this year,forecasting 2.8% growth.

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Gold Continues Falling

As I predicted yesterday, Gold continued falling after it bounced off the resistance at 1162.40 and eventually reached the support level at 1117.50. As you can see on the screenshot, it bounced off that level as well, but in my opinion that is a just a short retracement before it tests the support again. Should it manage to break below it I expect it will reach the previous low at 1077.17, which is a considerable level of support as well. That said, the bearish trend is likely still valid and we can probably expect Gold to reach 1000 in the foreseeable future.

Gold Bounced Off The Resistance

Gold reached the resistance at 1162.40 visible on the weekly filter chart but it failed to break above it and moved to the downside again. It will likely continue falling at least until it reaches the support at 1117.50. Time will tell whether this is the end of the correction, but personally I doubt that. Either way, the bearish trend is still in place, but I would be wary of opening new short positions before Gold reaches and breaks below the previous low at 1077.17.

Global Shares in Freefall

Stock markets all over the world have taken a nosedive because investors are terrified of a Chinese economic slowdown.

 London's FTSE 100 index closed down 4.6% at 5,898.87, with major markets in France and Germany down by 5.5% and 4.96% respectively.
In total, £73.75bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 as a result of Monday's falls.
Wall Street's Dow Jones initially fell 6%, but recovered to trade just 0.8% lower.
At one point it fell below 16,000 for the first time since February 2014, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq index was 1% lower, recovering from an earlier plunge of 8%.
Shares in Asia were hit overnight, with the Shanghai Composite in China closing down 8.5%, its worst close since 2007.
At its lowest point in the day, the FTSE 100 had lost as much as 6%, wiping some £100bn off its value.
Global investors are worried about growth in the world's second largest economy.
The floor was buzzing long before the US market open. All the traders knew this wouldn't be a typical sleepy August Monday.
Minutes after the opening bell, the Dow fell a staggering 1089 points, its biggest ever points drop. One floor trader complained his shirt was soaked with sweat after the early plunge in stocks.
Another, Stephen Guilfoyle from Deep Value, said the US markets were 'bordering on the edge of panic but not quite there yet.' He can remember the crash of 1987 and said this didn't feel as bad.
Indeed by late morning, US markets were showing some resilience, leading Mark Otto of J Streicher to conclude that Monday's big market moves in the US were similar to the 'flash crash' of 2010, when billions of dollars were wipedoff some of the world's biggest companies in a matter of minutes, only to recover almost as quickly.

GOLD Is Testing The Resistance

As I expected, GOLD continued to rise until it reached the resistance at 1166.20, which is visible on the weekly filter chart. It bounced off the resistance, but in my opinion that is only temporary and it will probably continue testing that level. The question is, just how high will it climb should it manage to break above that resistance? As you can see from the screencap above, the move to the upside will likely continue at least until it reaches the resistance coinciding with the upper trendline, which is around 1250.

EUR/USD Is Testing The Resistance

EUR/USD failed to break below the support at 1.1000 and started moving to the upside. The fundamentals yesterday gave it the necessary push to break above the resistance at 1.1130 and the pair continued climbing higher, eventually reaching the previous high at 1.1213 and climbing even a little higher than that, but so far the break above that resistance isn’t confirmed. Should EUR/USD manage to properly break above the 1.1213 we can likely expect it to continue moving towards the next resistance level, which is visible on the weekly filter chart and is at 1.1400.

The German Parliament Supported The Greek Bailout Deal

The German MPs voted to approve the bailout deal for Greece. 453 of them voted in favour of the deal, while 113 voted against it and 18 abstained.

According to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble it would be “irresponsible” to oppose the €86bn package.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right conservative bloc has been divided over the deal.
Prior to the vote nearly 60 of her own MPs had indicated they would vote against the rescue package.
In total 47 MPs did not attend the session.
It is thought a significant proportion are conservatives, who stayed away to avoid defying Mrs Merkel and voting no to the deal.
Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrat (CDU) party and its Bavarian CSU allies hold 311 seats in the 631-seat Bundestag. Mrs Merkel's coalition partner, the Social Democrats, supported the deal, as did the opposition Greens.
Last month, 65 CDU/CSU politicians refused to support even starting negotiations for a third bailout.
Despite being one the harshest critics of Greece's left-wing Syriza government, Germany's finance minister told MPs before the vote that they should give Greece the opportunity of a new start.
Mr Schaeuble told parliament: "There is no guarantee that all of this will work and there can always be doubts.
"But considering the fact that the Greek parliament already approved most of the measures, it would be irresponsible not to seize this chance for a new beginning in Greece."

EUR/USD: Range Continues

EUR/USD has been descending slowly for the past few days and it finally reached 1.1000 which is a considerable level of support. I expect that it will be testing it for some time before it manages to break below it. Or, in case it fails to break below it will bounce off the support and move to the upside again so it can test the resistance at 1.1170. On the other hand, if the pair does break below 1.1000 we can expect a further move to the downside and to the next significant support level visible on the daily filter chart, which is at 1.0850. Either way, range continues.

GBP/AUD: New Move To The Downside?

It appears that GBP/AUD is about to move to the downside again after it reached the resistance level at 2.1240 and bounced off of it. That is hardly surprising, considering the double top the pair formed last week. To elaborate, the pair will likely continue falling at least until it reaches the next support level, which is at 2.0920. Considering that the bullish trend has lasted for a long time now, that GBP/AUD formed a spinning top candlestick on the weekly filter chart and that it is high time for a proper correction, I would say that it is quite possible for the pair to break below that level and continue falling towards the support at 2.0580, which coincides with the (89)MA on the daily filter chart.

The Economy Of The Eurozone Has Grown by 0.3%

The economy of the Eurozone has grown by 0.3% between April and June.

According to the first estimate from Eurostat, that marks a slight slowdown compared to the 0.4% growth registered during the first quarter.

The inflation in the Eurozone was still 0.2% in July, the same as it was in June.

Earlier, it was announced that France's economy did not grow at all between April and June.
But growth in the first three months of the year was revised up from 0.6% to 0.7%, the statistics office Insee said.
The German economy grew 0.4%, up from 0.3% in the first quarter. Italy's economy grew 0.2%, slowing from 0.3% the previous quarter.
In the wider 28-member EU, GDP grew 0.4%, which was unchanged from the previous quarter, while inflation was 0.1% in July, unchanged from June.
Eleven member states reported deflation in the month, with Cyprus recording the biggest drop at -2.4%. Malta reported the most inflation at 1.2%.
French finance minister Michel Sapin said his country's economy was still on track to reach the government's forecast of 1% growth for the year.
He highlighted strong exports, which grew 1.7% in the quarter, having grown 1.3% in the previous quarter.
Growth in consumption by households slowed sharply from 0.9% to 0.1%, while production of goods and services contracted slightly.
Exports also grew strongly in Germany, helped by the weaker euro.
Finland's economy recorded a second quarter of contraction, down 0.4% havingrecorded negative growth of 0.1% in the first quarter.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD was slowly moving to the downside when it reached a strong level of support at 1.2950 and bounced off of it after forming several inverted hammer candlesticks on the four hour filter chart. At the moment the situation is quite uncertain, as the pair started climbing again but the resistance at 1.3070 proved to be another obstacle. It is currently testing that resistance. Should it manage to break above that level, it will likely test the next resistance at 1.3210. We can safely conclude that the bullish trend will continues only after the pair climbs above that level.

Greece Has Agreed To a Bailout Deal “Principle”

The European Commission said that Greece has agreed to a bailout deal with its creditors “on principle”.

Apparently the two sides have reached a technical agreement, but it now requires political approval.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has asked parliament to convene so that MPs can debate the details on Wednesday before a vote on Thursday.
A deal on a new €85bn (£60bn) three-year agreement is needed to keep Greece in the eurozone and avert bankruptcy.
Earlier, Greece's Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos had said "two or three small issues," were yet to be resolved with lenders, following overnight talks in Athens.
The country needs a deal by 20 August, when it has a debt repayment of about €3bn to make to the European Central Bank.
A European Commission spokeswoman said a technical deal had been reached last night between parties including Greece, the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the European Stability Mechanism.
She said a series of phone calls between political leaders would now take place.
A Greek official said earlier that Greece agreed the function of a new independent privatisation fund, and how non-performing bank loans will be administered.
"Finally, we have white smoke," the official said.
Deregulation of the natural gas market, another sticking point, was alsoagreed.

Will GOLD Continue Rising?

The GOLD has been consolidating for quite a while now but that is finally over because it failed to break below the support at 1080.40 and moved to the upside, breaking above the resistance at 1095.30 and then continued climbing. That was to be expected, because it formed a hammer and a doji candlesticks right above the support on the weekly filter chart. I expect that it will continue rising at least until it reaches the next resistance level, which is at 1114.50. Considering how long we have gone without a proper correction, this move to the upside to 1114.50 might be only the beginning.

The American Economy Added over 200k Jobs In July

The US economy added 215,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate remained at a seven-year-low of 5.3%.

According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics the jobs came in retail trade, health care, professional and technical services, and financial activities.

The jobs figures are a seen as a significant gauge of the health of the economy.
Analysts said the figures meant a US interest rate rise in September remained a possibility.
Last month, the Federal Reserve upgraded its assessment of the labour market, saying it was continuing to "improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment".
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: "With the Fed's decision on the timing of the first rate rise 'data dependent', today's report does nothing to discourage the belief that a September hike is very much on the table, albeit by no means a done deal."
He said that the new hiring figures "just missed" expectations of a 225,000 rise.
"Private sector payrolls grew by a solid 210,000, just shy of an expected 215,000 rise, led by service sector hiring alongside gains in the manufacturing and construction sectors," he added.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics said that "over the year, the unemployment rate and number of unemployed people were down by 0.9 percentage point and 1.4 million".
Payroll figures from May and June were revised upwards to show 14,000 more jobs created than previously reported. Also, the average working week lengthened to 34.6 hours, the highest since February.
Average hourly earnings increased by five cents, or 0.2%, after being flat in June.
The statistics office also said that the number of long-term unemployed was little changed at 2.2 million.
These account for 26.9% of the unemployed.
The civilian labour force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6% in July.

GBP/USD Finally Broke Below The Support

The US Non-farm Payrolls came out today and that was what finally gave the necessary push to GBP/USD to break below the support at 1.5490 – 1.5500 that coincides with the (89)MA on the daily filter chart. The consolidation finally appears to be over and the pair will likely continue moving south towards the next support level, which is around 1.5370 and is visible on the weekly filter chart. Should GBP/USD manage to break below that level we can probably expect it to move much lower than that.

GBP/USD Consolidation Is Still Not Over

The GBP/USD consolidation visible on the daily filter chart has been continuing for weeks now and unfortunately today’s fundamentals did not provoke enough volatility on the market for the range to end. The pair did move to the downside again however, and is currently testing the support at 1.5500, which it has been testing repeatedly for the past few weeks. Obviously we can expect little change before the US Non-farm payrolls tomorrow, but once they come out there is the very real possibility for the consolidation to finally end.

US Trade Deficit Swells Because of Record Imports

The strong dollar, record imports and growing consumer demand have increased the US trade deficit by 7.1% in June.

The gap between US exports and imports increased to $43.8bn, up from May's revised deficit of $40.9bn. Analysts had been expecting a deficit of $42.8bn.
Record imports of food and cars meant total imports rose 1.2% to $232.4bn.
Exports fell for the second month in a row, down 0.1% to $188.6bn, as global demand weakened.
The dollar, which has gained 15% against the currencies of the United States' main trading partners over the past year, also makes its imports cheaper and exports less competitive.
Laura Rosner, an economist at BNP Paribas said: "Exports remain far below trend and we have yet to see a decisive rebound following the resolution of the West Coast port strike.''
Figures last week showed that the US economy grew at an annualised pace of 2.3% in the three months to June, and also upgraded the growth estimate for the first quarter.
However, a survey of private sector job creation, released on Wednesday, fell short of forecasts.
Private employers hired 185,000 more workers in July, according to the ADP National Employment Report, below analysts' expectations of about 215,000.
The report also revised June's number down by 8,000 to 229,000.
The more comprehensive government jobs survey - the non-farm payroll report - is due out on Friday.
A Reuters survey of economists estimated that it will show that about223,000 jobs were added to the US economy in July, the same as in June.

Some Correction for GBP/AUD?

It looks like the GBP/AUD bullish trend is finally stalling and maybe a correction is about to begin or has already begun. As you can see in the screenshot above, there has not been such a significant drop in a single day for quite a long time. The pair could not break above the resistance at 2.1530 and moved to the downside, breaking below the support at 2.1200 with ease. I think it will likely continue descending until it reaches the support at 2.0880 visible on the daily filter chart. Whether it will continue falling below that level is unclear at the moment, but it is possible. Either way, for now there is no significant signal that the bullish trend is reversing.