It’s Black Friday

It is Black Friday in the United States and although that is not an official holiday the US markets are closed and the EUR/USD pair is moving very sluggishly.Which means that everyone will have time now to digest the Thanksgiving feast and to go shopping. I don’t mind either way, because when the market is volatile I have the opportunity to profit from it, and when it’s a holiday I can just sit back and relax for one or two days. I consider it a win-win situation. I hope everyone celebrating Thanksgiving had a lot of fun yesterday and are feeling good today because come Monday everything starts all over again.

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Business Investments in UK in Suprise Fall

Business investment in the UK fell unexpectedly in the third quarter of the year, figures show, although consumer spending remained strong.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said business investment was 0.7% lower in the July-to-September period from the previous quarter.
However, consumer spending grew by 0.8% in the third quarter.
The ONS confirmed the UK economy grew 0.7% in the quarter, unchanged from its initial estimate a month ago.
It also confirmed that the economy grew by 3% compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
'Cautious approach' During the April-to-June period, business investment had grown by 3.3% - its fastest pace for in nine years.
However, the fall in the third quarter of the year slowed the annual pace of growth to 6.3% from 11%.
Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers' organisation, said: "While business investment posted a bit of a dip, this isn't yet cause for concern as surveys of intentions across the private sector seem to be holding."
However, Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight said the drop could be "a sign that companies are adopting a more cautious approach in the face of increased global growth concerns (particularly weakness in the eurozone) and mounting political uncertainty in the UK as the 2015 general election looms".
"It is important for both balanced, sustainable UK growth and for improving productivity that that business investment holds up well going forward," he added.
This is the last snapshot of the UK economy before the government publishes its Autumn Statement next week.
The UK is one of the strongest performing of the major global economies, and the Bank of England has forecast that the economy will grow by 3.5% this year.

It Was A Double Bottom After All

EUR/USD really did form a double bottom at the daily filter chart after all. Not only that, but it formed a marubozu candlestick as well. 1.2350 is proving to be a pretty strong support level. Considering all this it looks like the pair is headed at least for 1.2570, maybe even 1.2600. I wonder, however, whether this really is not the beginning of a more long-term correction. So far the bearish trend seemed ready to continue, but as I mentioned above, the support around the 1.2350 level is proving to be quite strong.

It Looks Like A Double Bottom

As I feared EUR/USD reached the support level around 1.2350 after its drop on Friday and bounced off of it. At this point nothing is certain – at the moment it positively looks like it has formed a double bottom but apart from that there are no other signals that a new movement to the upside is about to begin. Or it could just be testing the support before breaking below it. Considering the situation I think it would be prudent to wait for it to break below the support at 1.2350 before selling again.

EUR/USD Fell After All

EUR/USD fell after all, just when I was starting to lose hope and had begun to think that the correction might last longer than I previously expected. The pair formed two nice reversal pattern candlesticks in the daily filter and, naturally, started descending after that, reaching the support around 1.2390. That said, we need to wait for it to break below the support and below the previous low at 1.2350 to be certain that it is not forming a double bottom and that the downward trend continues. Should it do so then it will likely continue down on its way to target 1.2200, maybe even 1.2000.

EUR/USD Correction continues.

It looks like the EUR/USD correction might last longer than I expected. The pair is slowly crawling towards 1.2615 – 1.2620 but the market is so uncertain that buying now means undertaking a considerable risk. Personally, I think the best approach would be to wait until it reaches the resistance around 1.2620 and then watch for any signals that it is about to start descending again, since I do not think that the bearish trend is over yet.

On the other hand it’s still not too late to buy again if you’re trading USD/JPY, because the bullish trend there appears to be as strong as ever and it will likely reach 119.50

Which Are Your Favourite Trading Instruments?

Which are your favourite trading instruments? I admit I often stick to the most popular ones - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, though sometimes I spend some time trading LCrude. I trade DAX30 from time to time, but I confess I find trading that particular instrument a bit too risky. I rarely touch any pair that is related to the GBP, NZD or CAD, and sometimes I think that is a mistake. I am interested in expanding my trading experience to stocks and commodities, but I think I should spend quite a lot of time practicing on a demo account before I dare to trade any of those with real money. What about you?

Your Main Flaw

What was your main problem while you studied how to trade properly? Or your main flaw, if you will. Mine was definitely the lack of confidence. More often than not I’d make a perfectly sound analysis of the situation but I still wouldn’t place any orders because I lacked confidence in my own assessment and I’d only watch the chart move just as I predicted. Over time I managed to largely overcome my flaw, and even though occasionally I still have my moments of weakness, I am proud to say that it happens a lot less often than it used to.

How Did You Become A Trader?

I’m curious, how did you become a trader? As for myself, I simply saw a broker advertisement on the Internet and I got curious. The rest, as they say, is history. I am a cautious person by nature and I researched the subject as much as I could before I installed a trading platform on my computer, not to mention that I spent months and months studying and practicing on a demo account before I felt brave enough to start trading with real money. It hasn’t been an entirely smooth ride, but I have gradually been improving my skills and I am quite pleased with the end result. So, what about you?

USD/JPY Continues Climbing While Range Continued for EUR/USD

After a short consolidation USD/JPY continued on its way up. I admit that I expected it would fall a little first, but the bullish trend is still very strong and proved me wrong. I expect it would reach target 118.00, or perhaps go even higher.

On the other hand, range continues for EUR/USD and will likely remain that way until next week. The pair has been consolidating for over a week now and I believe that once that ends it will likely continue on its way down to 1.2200.

To be honest, I am not used to the market being so slow on Thursday and Friday, which are usually the most active days of the week, but unfortunately there’s nothing else to do now but wait.

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Range Might Go On

It looks like range might go on for some time for EUR/USD. The market is exceedingly calm and I don’t know about others, but I prefer to stay away under these circumstances. Sometimes I wonder what I find to be more putting off – the aforementioned exceedingly calm market or the highly volatile one provoked by events like the US Non-Farm Payrolls. You take a greater risk trading under such circumstances either way. That said, sitting back and twiddling your thumbs waiting for an opportune moment to make a decision can be very stressful and annoying as well.

The Bullish USD/JPY Trend Continues

While EUR/USD is having its little correction on its way down to 1.2200 USD/JPY continues climbing after forming a hammer candlestick on the daily filter chart. I believe the current target is 1.1680, although I doubt it will stop there. Either way, despite the significant move to the upside I think it is not too late to keep buying, in case one has done so already or even start doing it now. As I have mentioned before, I prefer to trade trend, rather than range, and this is an excellent opportunity to do just that.

Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Gets Approval From China

Regulators have approved a long-awaited plan to connect the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges.

The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect will allow investors to trade across the border for the first time and is set to begin on 17 November.
It means global investors will now have access to Chinese stocks from Hong Kong, potentially resulting in $3.8bn (£2.3bn) worth of trades a day.
The system was expected to begin in October, but was delayed last month.
The tie up is seen as a key milestone in the capital market liberalisation of China - the world's second largest economy - where authorities keep a strong grip on the yuan currency.
Chinese regulators finally gave their approval on Monday.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the territory's de-facto central bank, issued a statement saying it was "pleased" with the approval after "intensive discussions and preparations."
"The linking of the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets will also propel the development of offshore renminbi (yuan) business in Hong Kong to new heights," it said.

EUR/USD Downward Trend Continues

As I thought yesterday the European Central Bank Rate Decision and the USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls definitely had quite the effect on the market. The former pushed EUR/USD even further down and it reached 1.3350, and while the latter had the opposite effect it was quite weak and likely temporary. The EUR/USD downward trend is as strong as ever and is headed for 1.2200 or even 1.2000. I have seen talk of it reaching 1.000 and I am tentatively willing to agree but I think that might take a while. In the meantime I intend to keep selling.

European Central Bank Rate Decision

As usual, the European Central Bank Rate Decision comes out on the first Thursday of the month, just like USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls does on the following day. These events always provoke great volatility in the market and I don’t know about you, but I have the habit of closing everything and sitting back to watch the show, unless I feel fairly confident in my prediction about the end result, which does happen from time to time. So, good luck to everyone who are planning to trade during these events.

EUR/USD Continues Falling

Apparently the assumption that EUR/USD will reach 1.2640 was far too generous, as it could not even break above 1.2580 before falling again. On the other hand, it is currently testing the support around 1.2450, so we need to be on the look out for the formation of a double bottom and a potential new move to the upside. However, the bearish trend still seems to be pretty strong and in case it does break below the support and the previous low at 1.2440, we can expect that it will continue falling at least until it reaches target 1.2200.

Hammer Candlestick in the Daily Filter Chart

EUR/USD first formed a marubozu, then a hammer candlestick pattern on the daily filter chart and naturally bounced back. It appears that the current target is around 1.2640. However, I do not think we can talk about a reversal yet – I believe this is just a temporary pullback and the EUR/USD descent will continue, as the trend is still very much bearish. If anything, this pullback might be a good opportunity to sell again, an opportunity I intend to use and use well because I still think that EUR/USD will fall at least until it reaches 1.2200.

EUR/USD Keeps Falling

As expected EUR/USD continued its descent and even broke below the support at 1.2500, reaching a new low at 1.2440. Despite the current pullback I think we will see the bearish trend continuing, at least until it reaches 1.2200, perhaps even 1.2000. I keep waiting to see signs of exhaustion, but I always end up disappointed. I am starting to wonder whether it is possible that we might actually see EUR/USD trading at 1.0000. I suppose time will tell, but things are not going well for the EUR, and they haven’t done so for quite a while now.