EUR/USD Reached 1.1230, Now What?

EUR/USD reached 1.1230 earlier today, but the question is, now what? First of all, congratulations to anyone who managed to make a good use of this excellent rally. I am definitely pleased with the profit I made. For the moment I decided to close some of my long positions, however, depending on what happens next I may open new ones. The pair is still testing the resistance around 1.1230 I think there is a possibility that it might break above it. Should that happen I think it will continue rising, possibly reaching target 1.1700 – 1.1800.

EUR/USD Is Headed for 1.1230

I was quite sure that EUR/USD would break above 1.1050 and continue climbing, but I confess I was not really expecting it would climb that high or do it so quickly. The pair broke above the resistance at 1.1000, did not even slow down at 1.1050 and continued climbing. If you look at the weekly filter chart the next target becomes quite obvious – EUR/USD is headed for 1.1230. Not to mention that the bullish trend is quite strong and it is very possible for the pair to break above that resistance and keep climbing. Either way, I intend to keep my long positions open for now.

AUD/USD: Consolidation Is Finally Over

The AUD/USD consolidation lasted for quite a while, starting around February and did not end until today when the pair finally broke above the resistance around 0.7880. I don’t know about you, but when consolidation lasts this long sometimes I start feeling like it will never end. Obviously that is an irrational feeling caused by frustration, but any decent trader will tell you that frustration is an emotion you just have to learn to deal with.

I think the pair will most likely continue climbing at least until it reaches 0.8210, where there is another pretty serious resistance level. Time will tell whether it will be able to climb even higher than that.

EUR/USD Continues Climbing

EUR/USD continued climbing after a short retracement earlier today. The pair has just broken above the resistance at 1.0900 and at this point I have little doubt that it will reach target 1.1000 sooner or later. Actually, I am starting to suspect that EUR/USD might climb even higher and reach target 1.1120, which coincides with the 89(MA) on the daily filter chart. That said, I took a look at this week’s economic calendar and I noticed that there are many important news and events throughout the week, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. I have little doubt that they will affect the market, but I think they will just provoke enough volatility for the pair to reach 1.1120 sooner rather than later.

The Greek Drama Continues

Sometimes it seems like the Greek drama will never end. Negotiations go on and on, but none of the sides in them are ever happy with what they are offered. For example, Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem recently warned that “big, big problems” have to be solved before Greece debt deal can be agreed on.

He was talking after a strained meeting between eurozone finance ministers and Greek government officials in the Latvian capital of Riga.
Ministers are trying to agree a deal to help Greece meet its debt repayments.
It must repay its creditors nearly €1bn (£720m) next month, and is struggling to raise the money.
Earlier this week, the government asked its public sector bodies to hand over any reserve cash to help make the payment.
Athens is also keen to secure the next tranche of funds from its main creditors - the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund - totalling €7.2bn.
"It was a very critical discussion," said Mr Dijsselbloem after the talks ended with little sign of progress.
"A comprehensive and detailed list of reforms is needed... and a comprehensive deal is necessary before any disbursement can take place.
"We are all aware that time is running out."
Similar frustrations were expressed by the European Commissioner for the euro, Valdis Dombrovskis.
"Progress in technical negotiations has not been sufficient to reach any conclusion during this Eurogroup here in Riga," he said.
Eurozone ministers are waiting for Athens to present a detailed package of economic reforms to improve the country's finances, which they have made a condition of further support.

EUR/USD Finally Broke Above 1.08

EUR/USD was stuck between 1.0700 -1.0800 for the past few days but it looks like today’s Eurogroup meeting provoked enough volatility on the market for the pair to break above 1.0800. The pair is likely currently headed for 1.1000. I thought that was its target back when it reached the support at 1.0550 and could not break below that level, although I began doubting my judgement earlier this week because the pair couldn’t break above 1.0800. Apparently I should be more confident in my own analysis.

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Range Continues For AUD/USD

AUD/USD has been consolidating for quite a few weeks now and it does not look like consolidation will end any time soon. The pair has been testing the resistance at 0.7810, but it has not been able to break above that level. While that is very much possible, I, personally, am on the lookout for any candlestick patterns forming under the resistance level indicating a new move to the downside, because for the moment I believe range will continue and the pair will head for the support at 0.7550 again.

GBP/USD: Conflicting Signals

I have always said that I prefer making my trading decisions based on the Japanese candlestick formation signals. What happens, however, when I see conflicting signals on different time-frames? For example:

As you can see for yourselves, on the four hour filter chart there is a very well-formed doji candlestick above the support that indicates a movement to the upside, while on the daily filter chart there are a hammer and a doji candlestick under the resistance that that indicate a movement to the downside. The question is, which signal is the correct one? I, personally, tend to believe the candlestick formations on the longer time-frame, i.e. the daily filter chart, although I remain wary of unpleasant surprises. Of course, in a situation like this one can always simply take a look at the shorter time-frames and use a suitable scalping strategy.

Christine Lagarde Is Pleased With The UK Economy

The head of IMF, Christine Lagarde had only praises for the UK government's economic strategy. To quote her: "It's obvious what's happening in the UK has worked."

Ms Lagarde played down differences between the IMF calculation of the future deficit and the more optimistic one provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
She said the figures were virtually the same, but just calculated differently.
George Osborne was sharing a panel with Ms Lagarde and German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble when she made the remarks.
"Generally in any election year, the teams that provide the hypotheticals on which future deficits are forecast, err on the side of caution and assume that whatever is announced is not necessarily or inevitably going to happen," she said.
Ms Lagarde added that the UK authorities had managed to provide the right balance of spending cuts and revenue raising.
"It's clearly also delivering results, because when we look at the comparative growth rates delivered by various countries in Europe, it's obvious that what's happening in the UK has actually worked," she said.
The IMF had predicted that the UK will have a deficit of £7bn in 2019-20, while the OBR expects there to be a surplus of £7bn.
Despite the large figures, the difference is just 0.6% of GDP.
Ms Lagarde said that this week's talks aimed to devise a plan to "prevent this new mediocre from becoming the new reality", adding: "The good news is that the global recovery continues. The not-so-good news is that growth remains moderate and uneven."
The IMF is forecasting only modest overall growth for the global economy andhas downgraded the prospects for some countries.

Is This The End Of The USD/CAD Movement To The Downside?

I am so glad to have been paying more attention to the USD/CAD pairing lately, because if I had not, I would have missed those doji and hammer candlesticks on the daily filter at the resistance at 1.2570, as well as its break below the support at 1.2380. Thankfully, I did notice these things on time and I managed to open short positions before the movement to the downside began. The question is, has it ended? The pair reached the support at 1.2230 on the weekly filter chart and even managed to break below that level, but then it returned to its previous level above it. I, personally, think it is possible for the pair to continue falling until it reaches 1.1900, or perhaps even 1.1700.

Surveyors Are Worried About UK House Price Increase

According to a new poll, house prices outside London and in the North are still rising. Surveyors call this a “worrying” trend and say that they expect it to continue over the next year.

Members of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said demand for flats and houses was currently outweighing supply.
A net balance of 21% of surveyors reported prices up in March.
In other words, those recording prices increases outnumbered those recording falls by nearly a quarter.
The surveyors were even more confident that prices will rise over the next year.
Simon Rubinsohn, Rics' chief economist, said activity in the housing market was falling back.
"Even more worrying are the tentative signs that price momentum could be set to pick up once again, as the supply of stock to the market continues to fall," he said.
"It is significant that price expectations nationally are accelerating both at the three and twelve-month time horizons, and at the latter, they are at their highest level since the spring of last year."
In its most recent report, the Halifax said that prices in the UK rose by 0.4% in March, after falling by 0.3% in February.

Gold Will Likely Keep Falling

The hammer candlestick formed under the resistance on the daily filter chart did indicate a drop indeed and the price of Gold fell to 1183.90, even though it had to test the support at 1193.20 for a while. Considering what I am seeing on the weekly filter chart – a doji candlestick right under the resistance at the 1212.15 level – I think Gold will continue dropping at least until it reaches target 1140.50, where there is a very serious support level. It has tested this support level many times and up to now it has never managed to break below it, so only time will tell whether it will succeed now.

Looks Like Consolidation Continues

Despite my hopes that the pair EUR/USD would break below the support around 1.0470 it failed to do so – in fact, it couldn’t even reach that level before it formed a spinning top candlestick and started climbing again. It is possible that the pair is just testing the support before breaking below it, but I’m afraid that my prediction has come true and the pair has formed a double bottom and the consolidation will continue for a while longer. It’s possible the pair will continue climbing until it reaches 1.1000 again, or even break above that level and reach target 1.1200.

EUR/USD Has Almost Reached The Previous Low

As I thought it would, the EUR/USD pair has almost reached the previous low at 1.0462 – 1.0470. The question is, what follows next? There is a serious possibility for the pair to form a double bottom once it reaches that level and to start climbing again, continuing the consolidation, but I, personally, think it will break below the support and keep falling until it finally reaches parity. That said, we will have to wait at least until Monday to find out.

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I Always Trust The Candlesticks

I have mentioned many times that out of all the Forex trading strategies I know I simply prefer to trust the candlestick patterns in combination with the Bollinger Bands indicator. Take recent developments in the Gold trading chart, for example. On the daily filter chart you can clearly notice that the price has reached a strong resistance and has formed a shooting star right under it, which is a pretty solid signal for a movement to the downside. I trusted the candlestick pattern and shorted. As you can see, the movement to the downside did happen. I, personally, expect it to reach target 1185, where I will likely close my short positions.

EUR/USD Consolidation Continues

EUR/USD tested the resistance around 1.1030 – 1.1040 repeatedly but failed to break above it and started falling again. The pair is likely headed for target 1.0770 where there is a pretty strong support level. That said, let us not forget that tomorrow U.S. Fed will release Minutes from March 17-18 FOMC Meeting. Such events almost always provoke a lot of volatility on the market, so depending on the news I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pair breaking above the aforementioned resistance at 1.1030.

Athens Is Finally Ready to Face Reality And Lagarde Is Pleased

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde is pleased to learn that Athens will make a loan payment due to the IMF this week.

On Sunday, Greece's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis said his country intended to meet "all obligations to all its creditors, ad infinitum".
His comments followed a meeting in Washington with International Monetary Fund officials.
It has been almost five years since the start of the Greek bailout.
Ms Lagarde said in a statement on Sunday that she and Mr Varoufakis had agreed continuing uncertainty over Greece's ability to repay its debt was not in the country's interest.
"I welcomed confirmation by the minister that payment owing to the Fund would be forthcoming on April 9th," Ms Lagarde said.
"I expressed my appreciation for the minister's commitment to improve the technical teams' ability to work with the authorities to conduct the necessary due diligence in Athens, and to enhance the policy discussions with the teams in Brussels, both of which will resume promptly on Monday."
There had been concerns that Greece would not be able to meet its IMF loan repayment of €450m.
Greece has been in tense, drawn-out negotiations in recent months with its creditors over its bailout program.
In February, its government negotiated a four-month extension to its bailout in return for dropping key anti-austerity measures and undertaking a eurozone-approved reform programme.
But IMF leaders together with the European Union have frozen aid to the cash-strapped nation until its government comes to an agreement on the reform package.
Last week, the country presented a new package of reforms in the hope of receiving some funding, but the proposal has not yet received approval from EU and IMF lenders.
The delay of about €7.2bn ($7.9bn; £5.3bn) due to be delivered to Greece hasforced the government to use its reserves to meet its obligations.

GBP/USD Broke Above (89)MA On the 4-hour Filter Chart

The GBP/USD pair spent the past two weeks testing the resistance around the 1.4880 - 1.4900 level, which coincided with the (89)MA on the four-hour filter chart, but it finally managed to break above it after the US Non-farm Payrolls yesterday. Considering that together with the multiple doji candlesticks on the daily filter chart, I think the pair will continue climbing at least until it reaches the resistance at 1.5060. Should it manage to break above it, it might even reach 1.5270, which coincides with the (89)MA on the daily filter chart.

The EUR/USD Continues Climbing

EUR/USD tested the support at 1.0720 but could not break below it and the US Non-Farm Payrolls today caused it to started climbing again. As expected, the pair reached 1.1000 and even broke above that level. The EUR/USD correction continues and the pair will likely keep climbing for the foreseeable future. I think it is headed for the resistance at 1.1050, and should it break above that level it will probably continue rising until it reaches 1.1200. Either way, we will have to wait until after the holidays for any further developments.

The Weak Euro Is Helping The Eurozone Manufacturers

Predictions that the Eurozone might fall apart because of the weak euro might be premature because according to a new survey, the aforementioned weak euro is helping manufacturers and creates new jobs.

Markit's purchasing managers' index (PMI)　forthe manufacturing sector rose to a 10-month high of 52.2 in March as eurozonefactories benefited from the weaker currency.

It is the 23rd consecutive month that the index has been over 50, indicating growth rather than contraction.
Companies created jobs at the quickest pace for three and a half years.

"March saw the sharpest increase in new export orders since April 2014. Companies reported that the weaker euro was the main factor driving new export orders higher," said Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist.

"This is still a fledgling recovery, however, and the overall rate of expansion remains only modest."
Ireland and Spain led the board with PMI figures of 56.8 and 54.3 respectively, while growth also improved in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.

But PMI readings in France, Greece and Austria remained below 50.

The euro has fallen nearly 12% since January due to the expectation and then implementation of the European Central Bank's policy of increasing the money supply through quantitative easing.
As a result, foreign imports into the eurozone have been more expensive,providing less competition for domestic firms, who have also found it easier tosell their goods abroad more cheaply.