Friday 26 December 2014

Savings Rate in Japan Turns Negative For the First Time

For the first time since records were collected in 1955, Japan's population is drawing down its savings and the savings rate, calculated as savings divided by disposable income plus pension payments, was negative 1.3%.
It's a dramatic change from when the Japanese saved nearly a quarter of their income (23.1%) when the savings rate peaked in 1975.
Japan had the highest household saving rate in the OECD in the 1960s until it fell to the lowest. After all, an aging population draws down savings and Japan is the fastest-aging country in the world; its population has been shrinking for a decade.
It's another blow to the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who just won another term to try and implement his policies dubbed Abenomics. On the campaign trail, he said that Abenomics aimed to raise wages and employment to revive the economy and defeat deflation or price falls.
Yet, earnings (adjusted for inflation) dropped 4.3% from a year earlier in November. It's the steepest decline since the 2009 global crisis and marks the 17th month of falls.
Indebted country Unsurprisingly, households are spending less. The average spend has dropped by 2.5%, which is the eighth consecutive drop - a trend that won't help boost domestic demand and prices.
Indeed, inflation has clocked in at a 14 month low. There's no price pressure on nominal yields on government bonds. The 10 year bond yield has fallen to a record low of below 0.3%.
Such low borrowing costs will help the highly indebted country, but it also reflects an expectation that the economy and inflation won't be getting going, and ultimately lead to rate rises.
In sum, it's a tough slew of data for Abenomics.

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