Victoria Forex
Wednesday, 23 December 2015
Forecasters Looking forward to 2016 after a Disappointing 2015
European economic forecasters are looking forward to 2016, hoping that their predictions for 2015 will come true next year.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index will rally 16 percent from Tuesday’s close to surpass its April record, according to the average of 10 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Commerzbank AG, one of the most accurate at estimating the gauge’s trajectory the last two years, expects the equities to jump 18 percent in 2016, helped by the European Central Bank’s stimulus.
“It’s a liquidity-driven rally,” said Peter Dixon, Commerzbank’s global equities economist in London. “Looking back, quantitative easing did have a positive impact on equity markets, and next year the ECB may opt to extend the terms under which it is providing this liquidity. You want to continue to buy equities.”
That’s what all strategists are saying. Even the most bearish, JPMorgan Chase & Co., forecasts a 10 percent jump in the Stoxx 600 next year. Citigroup Inc., the most bullish, sees it surging 23 percent. The benchmark climbed 1.6 percent at 10:57 a.m. in London.
European equities climbed as much as 21 percent this year before concerns over global growth and a disappointing boost in ECB stimulus left the Stoxx 600 up just 4.2 percent through yesterday. With a valuation of 15.5 times estimated earnings, it’s almost 10 percent cheaper than the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
That, and diverging policies between the Federal Reserve and the ECB have sent investors flocking to Europe. The region’s equity funds got money in 29 of the past 31weeks, according to a Bank of America Corp. note dated Dec. 17 that cites EPFRGlobal data. Economists forecast euro-area growth of 1.7 percent next year --more than in 2015 and the most since 2010 -- and ECB President Mario Draghi has pledged to further boost stimulus if needed.
2 comments:
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27 December 2015 at 07:36
Interesting to read.
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Unknown
27 December 2015 at 15:15
Very useful article.
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Interesting to read.
ReplyDeleteVery useful article.
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