Wednesday 16 September 2015

The World Bank Is Concerned About US Rate Rise






The World Bank has warned developing countries to brace themselves for trouble if or when the US Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates.
This could happen as early as tomorrow when Fed concludes its policy meeting.
While a new report from the World Bank says the impact will likely be modest, it still warns that there could be more serious consequences.
US interest rates have been practically zero for more than six years and as the economy continues to recover, the Fed is sure to raise interest rates at some stage.
Developing countries are bound to be affected when it happens and the first step might be imminent.
The new World Bank report gives a number of reasons why developing nations should be able to cope without a great deal of fallout. Notably, the rate rise has been anticipated for a long time and it is likely to be a gradual process.
That said, there are risks of what the report calls a "perfect storm".
Some developing countries are vulnerable. The report doesn't point the the finger, but Turkey, Brazil and Venezuela are almost certainly among them.
The risks for countries include government and private sector debt, especially if it is in a foreign currency, and a large deficit in international trade, which has to be financed by borrowing from abroad. Weaker economic growth is also a factor, and Brazil has seen a marked deterioration.
There is a risk of a large decline in funds going to developing nations and if international investors were to become more wary of riskier investments it could have an impact even on countries that don't have specific weaknesses.
The conclusion: the developing world should be "hoping for the best butpreparing for the worst".

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