The FOMC Statement Certainly Had An Effect

The FOMC statement certainly had an effect because EUR/USD fell and fell hard without even reaching the resistance at 1.2830 first. It is currently trading at around 1.2580 and I am assuming that it will eventually reach target 1.2500. What will follow next is up for debate, however. Will it form a double bottom and bounce back or will it break below the support at 1.2500 to head even lower? Personally, I still think the long-term target is 1.2200, but we cannot say anything for certain before we see what happens around the 1.2500 level first.

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EUR/USD Still Climbing Slowly

EUR/USD is still climbing slowly after breaking above 1.2750 and heading for target 1.2800 – 1.2830. There will be FOMC news later today, so the current situation is likely only temporarily. Depending on the news we could finally see some volatility on the market. Personally, I think that it will still likely reach 1.2830, but if it is unable to break above that resistance we might see a sharp drop. Either way, waiting for such news always creates a lot of tension – just like the calm before the storm.

Correction Continues for EUR/USD

Correction continues for EUR/USD. After the slight drop last week, the pair formed a doji candlestick on the daily filter chart and began climbing again. Frankly, I was not entirely sure at the time whether that doji candlestick was a good enough signal that such a climb was about to begin, but I was wrong. It has formed a nice channel visible in the four hour filter chart and appears to be headed for target 1.2830 again, where, as we know, there is a significant resistance level. It will likely start testing that resistance again, but it is anyone’s guess whether it will be able to break above it.

An Uneventful Monday After an Uneventful Friday

On Friday I had hopes that perhaps the beginning of the new week would mean that EUR/USD would become a little more volatile than it had been for the past few days, but unfortunately that was not the case. Monday was just as uneventful and slow as last Friday. I really dislike corrections like this, when everything moves at a snail’s pace. As much as I like EUR/USD – and considering that I largely feel comfortable trading only one or maximum two pairs at a time – if it keeps this up I might move onto some other pair – USD/JPY perhaps.

EUR/USD Range

As I feared yesterday range did begin for EUR/USD. The pair has barely moved in the past day or so and at this point I am feeling pretty frustrated. Oh, well, there is nothing I can do about it except sit and wait – clearly we won’t see any major changes before the beginning of next week. Perhaps this is not so bad. After all, the weekend is always a great opportunity to relax and prepare yourself to look at the charts with fresh eyes and analyze them with a rested mind on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Support at 1.2630

EUR/USD was descending but encountered support at 1.2630 , which was expected, just as it was expected to bounce back a bit from it. Personally, I still think the bearish trend will continue, but EUR/USD first needs to break below 1.2630. Whether that will happen right away or range will start again is uncertain, either way at the moment the market is not particularly volatile and we might have to wait until tomorrow or even next week before we see any major changes. Once it does break below 1.2630, however, I still expect it to head for target 1.2500.

EUR/USD Could Not Break Above The Support

EUR/USD could not break above the resistance level at 1.2840 after spending days testing it, and eventually began descending again. It broke below the the support level at 1.2680 and, I think, is currently headed for target 1.2520. This, of course, is only the short term target. If you look at the monthly filter chart you will notice that the long term target is around 1.2200, although I am sure it is unlikely to reach it any time soon. Anyway, I think it might be time to start selling again. Frankly, I should’ve probably done that yesterday, but better late than never.

EUR/USD Keeps Testing The Resistance

EUR/USD keeps testing the resistance at 1.2840 but it cannot seem to break above it despite days of testing it. I think I am getting a little exasperated at this point. I often say that patience, among other things, is a trader’s virtue, but when it comes to putting words to practice it is not as easy as I wish it was. Still, there is nothing left to do but wait and see whether the pair will break above the resistance and head for 1.2900 at least, or will it form a proper signal for a reversal. Sooner or later it will do one of these things, it always does.

Was That Hanged Man Candlestick A False Signal?

Back on Friday EUR/USD formed a hanged man candlestick on the daily filter chart right under the resistance level at 1.2840, so at the time I assumed it was a signal for a new descent. And while we did see the price dropping a little, it was nowhere near what I expected it would be. Now there is another doji candlestick in the daily filter chart, perhaps signifying another reversal. At this point I am not convinced either way. Range continues, but until EUR/USD breaks above the resistance at 1.2840, I do not think it we can tell for certain that it will keep climbing.

Is This The End of the EUR/USD Correction?

EUR/USD formed a hanging man candlestick pattern in the daily filter chart, which is usually a signal for reversal. Also, there is a pretty strong resistance around 1.2840 – 1.2850, which is exactly where this hanging man candlestick is. So the question is whether this is the end of the correction and EUR/USD will start descending again, or will it break above the resistance level at 1.2840 to head for target 1.2900. For me this hanged man candlestick is a pretty strong warning not to start buying again and in a combination with the resistance at 1.2840 a reliable enough signal to start selling.

The EUR/USD Correction Still Continues

After EUR/USD broke above the resistance level at 1.2700 and peaked to 1.2885 we are now seeing some retracement back to 1.2700, which has become a support level. Should break below that support level I assume it will continue to 1.2500, but if it bounces back it might indeed reach 1.2900. Either way, the EUR/USD correction continues and we might have to wait for some time before it ends. Personally, I am not too fond of trading correction after its first few days because the market becomes too volatile for my taste, but I wish good luck to those who are.

The EUR/USD Correction Continues

Not only did EUR/USD reach the target at 1.2850 but it broke above that level and reached 1.2887. I admit that I did not expect it would climb this much this quickly, but I cannot say I am displeased about it because I profited from my long positions. Congratulations to everyone else who did too. Now the question is what follows next. At the moment I am not seeing any signal that it might head down, but it is too early to tell. On the other hand, it might keep climbing until it reaches target 1.2950 though it might need some time to get there.

Range Continues for EUR/USD

EUR/USD has been glued to the middle band of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily filter chart for six days now and range continues. The situation still seems quite uncertain to me and I am still patiently waiting for a proper signal. As it is, it either has to break above the resistance at 1.2750 – 1.2760 so it can reach its target around 1.2850 or it has to break below the support at 1.2500 so it can continue its descent to the long term-target around 1.2000. Either way, it looks like we will have to wait a bit more until it becomes clear where it is headed.

Another Slow Monday for EUR/USD

It is Monday and as usual nothing interesting happens on Monday. The market appears quite calm and the EUR/USD correction slowly continues. As I suspected on Friday that drop was only temporarily. Personally, I think its current target is 1.2870, perhaps 1.2900. That said, I am still not convinced that the downward trend is over and that this is a reversal, so I think I should be on the lookout for signals that the EUR/USD descent is about to continue. I believe that the long-term target at 1.2200 or even at 1.2000 is still quite valid.

The Future Is Uncertain

EUR/USD hit a support level it could not break below and bounced back, though now it appears to be heading south again. To be honest, at this point I am uncertain whether this is a continuation of the downward trend or it is part of the correction. It could even be an attempt to form a double bottom before it begins climbing again. It is Friday afternoon, so I doubt the situation will become any more clear before the market closes later today. We might have to wait for next week before we are able to tell whether the bearish trend will continue.

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EUR/USD Is Still Climbing Slowly But…

EUR/USD might still be climbing slowly but currently the market is not at all volatile, because everyone are waiting for USD Fed to release the Minutes from the FOMC meeting – they should do so later today and then it will probably become obvious whether EUR/USD will break above the resistance at 1.2700 or it will start falling again, heading for 1.2500 (or even lower) again. At this point there is no signal for movement in either direction and I feel quite torn between my suspicions that we will see another drop and my expectation for a correction.

EUR/USD Might Reach 1.2710

After the drop last week correction did begin for EUR/USD – it formed doji candlesticks in the four hour and daily filter charts and started climbing. Yesterday I didn’t believe that it would climb as much as it did, but apparently I was wrong. Its current target appears to be 1.2710 where there is a pretty strong resistance,  so I expect it will stop there, since I do not believe that the bearish trend is completely exhausted yet. Once it reaches 1.2710 I will be on the lookout for any signals that it might begin falling again.

Some Pullback in the EUR/USD Chart

After the non-farm payrolls on Friday EUR/USD suffered another big drop – almost a hundred and twenty pips – but it seems that today we might see some pullback, which is only natural. There is a doji both in the daily and the four hour filter charts and the price has started climbing. Personally, I think that for now the target is 1.2580 – 1.2590. That said, the trend is still bearish, so after the pullback ends it will likely continue its descent. As I mentioned on Friday, the long-term target is most likely 1.2030, or 1.2000, perhaps even lower.

The Non-Farm Payrolls Certainly Had an Effect

The non-farm payrolls certainly had an effect on the market today as the EUR/USD dropped another seventy pips and reached 1.2500, as I have been predicting it would for some time now. The bearish EUR/USD trend still shows no signs of exhaustion and the way things are going I think we should expect further drops in the coming weeks. Also, if you take a look at the monthly filter chart you will notice that previous lows are at 1.2030 and 1.1870. I really would not be surprised if it is headed for those targets, although I doubt that will happen any time soon.

EUR/USD Might Be Headed For A Correction

As I suspected, EUR/USD did form a double bottom yesterday, which had the expected result and the price started climbing. I think the target is 1.2700. That said, later today EUR ECB's Mario Draghi will speak at the rate decision press conference and the non-farm payrolls are on Friday, so the market is expected to be pretty volatile for the rest of the week, in which case making predictions is somewhat counter-productive. We will have to wait and see what effect these events will have and then make a decision.

EUR/USD Hits Strong Support

EUR/USD hit strong support after it fell yesterday and returned to its previous 1.2600 level  although it broke below that. Personally, I think the bearish trend is not exhausted yet, but we may see some consolidation or even correction before this pair manages to break below the support at 1.2600. Once that happens, it will likely head for 1.2500. That said, I am seeing a double bottom in the one hour filter chart, so as I mentioned above, we might see some pullback first