The Situation Is Quite Uncertain

The bearish trend in the EUR/USD chart has persisted for a long time now and it seems to have finally become exhausted. This pair is oversold and correction should begin soon. However, all that we are seeing is range that began after the last feeble drop on Wednesday. The question is whether this range will form a signal that a more long-term climb is about to start. So far I am seeing no such thing. Personally, I don’t like trading range, so I prefer to wait for a more conclusive signal that correction is about to begin or for an indication that EUR/USD will continue its descent.

EUR/USD Is Likely To Continue On Its Way Down

EUR/USD, being as oversold as it was, seemingly ended its descent yesterday – or at least did so temporarily – and rose to test the resistance level at 1.3200. It broke through that resistance level and reached 1.3220, which turned into a new resistance level that proved to be harder to break through. The question is whether at the moment EUR/USD is falling in order to form a double bottom – a clear indication that it might start rising again – or it will continue on its way down to 1.3100. Personally, I will not start selling again until I see it break through the support level at 1.3150

EUR/USD Didn’t Recover That Gap

Just as I thought, EUR/USD did not recover that gap that formed after the market opened on Monday before it started falling again. However, this pair was so oversold that some correction was inevitable. Naturally, a doji formed in the 4 hour filter chart and the price started climbing. The way I see it, the initial target is likely to be 1.3200 and should it break through the resistance there, it will probably reach 1.3250 and finally recover that gap. Personally, I started buying when I saw the doji in the 4 hour filter chart.

And The Range Still Continues

The range in the EUR/USD chart continues after the market opened with a 40 pips gap yesterday. The question is, will it recover the aforementioned gap before it continues further down or will continue falling with no correction at all? The market is oversold and shows signs of exhaustion, but I am yet to see any sort of a signal indicating that a correction is about to begin. That said, a possible correction is likely to reach at least 1.3300. On the downside, the target, I believe, is 1.3100. At this point, however, I still feel too uncertain to buy or sell.

Is That a Double Bottom I see?

It is Monday and as it often happens on Monday range has been continuing for hours now on the EUR/USD chart after the market opened with a 40 pips wide gap. Personally, I think I am seeing a double bottom formed in the 1 hour filter chart, but the question remains whether that signifies that the price will recover the gap. I think it will, but even if it does, I still believe that afterwards it will continue its descent and will reach at least 1.3100. Or if it doesn’t close the gap, it will start falling without any recovery. Either way, I believe the trend is still bearish.

Sometimes The Best Option Is To Do Nothing

I have been observing the EUR/USD chart for the past few hours and I think the market is quite oversold at the moment. That said, I’m also not seeing any clear signal that a long-term correction is about to begin. Also, Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi will both be speaking later today and I think we all know just how volatile the market is during and after such events. Not to mention that it is Friday and I feel uncomfortable placing new orders so late when I have no idea what the situation will be like when the market opens again on Monday. So I think that for the moment I will just sit tight and do nothing.

The Euro Plunges and the Dollar Soars

The Federal Open Market Committee released the attached minutes of the last Committee meeting that was held on July 29-30, 2014 and the consequences were expected if awesome to observe. The euro plunged and the dollar soared. I watched the unfolding events with quiet curiosity. That said, the following rebound was also expected, although I believe it is only temporary. EUR/USD will likely reach 1.3290 and then the euro will probably start plunging again.

I will, however, wait for a proper signal that the rebound is over before I start selling again.

EUR/USD Keeps Falling

EUR/USD broke through support at 1.3330 and keeps falling. I admit, I was hoping it would reach 1.3450-1.3480 before it started falling again, but apparently it was too much to hope for. The situation in Ukraine likely has a great effect on this pair. That said, obviously there should be some sort of rebound, and soon. On the other hand, I am just wondering just how much lower it can go. Could it reach 1.3000? Obviously that is not going to happen in a few days – it is unlikely to happen even in a few weeks and there should be recovery along the way, but could it really go that low?

EUR/USD Is Testing Support at 1.3340

It turned out I was right yesterday, EUR/USD did repeat the already established pattern and fell to 1.3340 to test the support there again. I am waiting to see whether it will go even lower. I admit I am a little disappointed that it did not continue rising to 1.3480 as I predicted it would do last week, but it is still not too late for that. That said, I will not be doing anything until I see some sort of proper signal on the 4 hour filter. At the moment the situation appears quite uncertain and placing a trade for the sake of placing a trade is unwise.

EUR/USD Will Continue Range

After spending a weekend lying in bed with a fever and feeling miserable, this morning I got up, took a look at the EUR/USD chart and I discovered that last night the candlestick in the daily filter formed a falling star. Although it is never quite certain what will happen next when the price reaches the middle band of Bollinger Bands, I think this candlestick means range will continue, especially considering that this pattern has already repeated several times over in the past three weeks. I expect the price to fall back to the support at 1.3330. Only time will tell what will happen after that.

EUR/USD Formed a Second Doji in the Daily Filter

Imagine my pleasant surprise when I woke up this morning, took a look at the EUR/USD chart and discovered that the daily candlestick closed last night forming a second doji. Admittedly, the doji candlestick might mean both  reversal or a break before the trend continues (it all depends on the candlestick that follows) but considering the strong support at the 1.3330 level, the double bottom and the two doji I am still convinced that in this case it means a reversal.

Yesterday’s long positions reached their take profit level and today I am thinking I should place new ones.

I Think I'll Start Buying...

Last night the daily EUR/USD candlestick closed forming a doji. Between that, the strong support at 1.3330 and what I think looks like a very well-formed double bottom, I think I should start buying. I will place stop loss below the support at 1.3330 and take profit at 1.3400. Depending on how the situation develops I might move the take profit even higher. I should, I think, at the very least make use of that rather obvious range that has formed. Trading range is not something I do very often, but I have decided to give it a try today.

EUR/USD Is Testing Support

The EUR/USD is testing support at 1.3330, but I still haven’t given up on the thought that the price should continue its corrective recovery and go to 1.3420 (23.6% Fibo), or even all the way up to 1.3480 (38.2% Fibo). Also, I think that currently the chart has already formed range that is quite obvious in the 4 hour filter. How long will this continue is a matter of speculation. That said, I am asking myself just how low will the price go when it begins its descent once again. Will it go all the way down to 1.2820? Only time will tell. Patience is, after all, a virtue for a trader.

EUR/USD Might Begin A Temporary Recovery

EUR/USD is the gift that keeps on giving and continues its descent. Personally, I think that it will stop, at least temporarily, when it reaches the support at 1.3330-1.3320 and might even begin a corrective recovery up to 1.3420 which is 23.6% Fibo, or it might even continue up to 1.3480 which is 38.2% Fibo. In the 4 hour filter it appears to be forming a double, maybe even a triple bottom but only time will tell whether that assumption is correct. After it has reached 38.2% Fibo the price should continue, I think, its descent.

Introductory Post

Well, hello, everyone.

I have been working as a trader for a few years now, but only lately did I feel that I have gathered the courage, knowledge and experience to begin blogging publicly about it. Forex trading is certainly an interesting, exciting - and occasionally stressful occupation, but its rewards - both financial and psychological - can be quite motivating to keep going. I have had my ups and downs over the years, I have learned quite a lot, experienced a lot and I am looking forward to sharing it with whomever might be interested in reading about it.